The southwest monsoon has advanced further and reached the Andaman region ahead of its normal schedule, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Saturday.

According to the weather department, the southwest monsoon has covered parts of the south Arabian Sea, south-west and south-east Bay of Bengal, large parts of the Andaman Sea, the entire Nicobar Islands and Sri Vijaya Puram. It has also advanced into some parts of the Andaman Islands.

The early advancement of the monsoon is being seen as a positive sign for the upcoming rainy season across the country.

The IMD stated that if the current weather conditions and monsoon circulation remain favourable, the monsoon may reach Kerala earlier than the normal onset date.

Usually, the southwest monsoon hits Kerala around June 1 before gradually advancing to other parts of the country. However, the Southwest Monsoon is likely to set in over Kerala on May 26, with a model error margin of +- 4 days, predicted the IMD on Friday. 

The IMD has been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala since 2005.The forecast is based on an indigenously developed statistical model with a model error of +- 4 days. 

The model uses six predictors, including minimum temperatures over northwest India, pre-monsoon rainfall peak over the south peninsula, outgoing longwave radiation over the South China Sea and southwest Pacific region, and lower tropospheric zonal winds over the southeast Indian Ocean and northeast Indian Ocean.

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IMD’s forecasts over the past 21 years (2005-2025) have been largely accurate except in 2015. In the most recent six-year period (2020-2025), the forecast performance remained close to actual onset dates, with minor variations between predicted and observed arrivals of the monsoon.